Automated trucks that fall below the Level 4 autonomous vehicle technology threshold will still need an operator and won’t result in a loss of driver jobs, according to the BLS report.The Society of Automotive Engineers uses a classification system of 5 levels of vehicle autonomy based on the amount of necessary driver intervention.
Automated trucks that fall below the Level 4 autonomous vehicle technology threshold will still need an operator and won’t result in a loss of driver jobs, according to the BLS report.The Society of Automotive Engineers uses a classification system of 5 levels of vehicle autonomy based on the amount of necessary driver intervention.That count is well below the estimate of 3.5 million truckers from the industry’s largest lobbying group, the American Trucking Associations.
The number of long-haul truckers is somewhere between 1.87 million and 2.125 million, according to estimates in the Bureau of Labor Statistics report.
heavy and tractor-trailer truck driver jobs could be over-stated by as much as 40 percent, according to an upcoming report from the federal government’s largest employment data agency.
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However, the trade group agrees with the assessment that the pace of potential displacement of drivers due to technology will not be quick, if at all, ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said.
“ATA has long said that there will be a place for truck drivers in the cabs of trucks for the foreseeable future and beyond, and we have yet to see compelling data or evidence to change that opinion,” Costello said.Viscelli did a similar analysis of the labor impact of self-driving trucks for an academic paper he expects will be published as soon as February.In it, he concluded 500,000 to 600,000 long-haul trucker jobs might be at risk.“Her numbers are probably as good as anybody’s out there.” If fewer long-haul drivers work in the United States than the industry’s generally accepted estimate, it also calls into question the long-held stance that there aren’t enough drivers to go around, causing a widespread shortage. Census and Bureau of Transportation Statistics ran the Federal Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey to count trucks and other vehicles for 40 years but dropped It in 2002 for budget reasons.The shortage exists only because long-haul truckers who get paid by the mile don’t make enough to stay in jobs that put them on the road for weeks at a time and they quit the business, creating enormous turnover, economists and industry insiders who reviewed the paper said. Tallying long-haul drivers is further complicated by lack of current data on the number of trucks operating in the country, Monaco said. The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration maintains a truck registry through the Motor Carrier Management Information System.Federal statistics also are off because they include occupations in which driving a truck is incidental to a job’s main function, such as sales workers who drive a truck or “light truck or delivery service drivers” who deliver or pick up merchandise, according to the paper. They also posited that an additional 10 percent to 25 percent of that number work as self-employed or contractor drivers, or 170,000 to 425,000.Those assumptions led the BLS researchers to conclude that approximately 1.7 million heavy and tractor-trailer truckers are employed by U. That truckers have been over-counted is “no surprise to me whatsoever,” said Joe Rajkovacz, director of governmental affairs and communications for the Western States Trucking Association.“As far as I’m concerned, we ended up in the same place,” he said of Monaco’s work.“This paper is going to be an important contribution,” Viscelli said.The report, “Truck Driving Jobs: Are They Headed for Rapid Elimination?” from researchers Maury Gittleman and Kristen Monaco, is based on their May 2017 presentation at a conference sponsored by the Industry Studies Association.